Colette's Grand Detour

Now that I have visited Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan (I’m just missing Tajikistan to complete the classic 5 Stans!) I am getting a wider sense of the region as a whole. I’ve been interested in understanding things like the natural hazards that each country is exposed to. But I thought it would be interesting to research a little bit into what degree climate change is being observed in Central Asia. And what that could mean for the region in the future.

My research tells me that Central Asia is extremely vulnerable to climate change because of its geography and heavy reliance on water from glaciers and snowmelt. All five countries are already seeing major changes in their climate.

Below are some key trends that have been observed:

• Central Asia has warmed about 1.5-2 degrees since the mid-20th century, above the global average
• The region is experiencing more frequent and intense heatwaves, this has especially been observed in the capital cities
• The Tien Shan and Pamir glaciers are shrinking rapidly threatening the long term flow of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers – critical to all the economies of Central Asia
• Winters are becoming wetter and summers drier
• More extreme rainfall events that result in floods and mudslides have been recorded

This is going to have tremendous affects on the entire region. Water stress is going to become even more severe and will lead to more disagreements on how water in the region is fairly distributed. As water availability declines and temperatures rise, agricultural production will struggle more and more, diseases and pests will spread more easily and into new areas and employment in this sector will become difficult to sustain. All of this could potentially spark human conflict between and within countries as every grasps to keep hold of what little resource remains.

Desertification will continue to expand, reducing pastureland for nomadic herders. And the risk of natural hazards like landslides, and glacial lake outburst floods will grow as permafrost rapidly melts. Mountain species like snow leopards will lose their alpine habitats.

The outlook from a quick google search is that by 2050 the region could see a crop yield decrease of 20-30%, 5-10% less water availability per capita and more frequent disasters. International organisations like the World Bank and UN Development Programme are working with countries on adaptation plans such better irrigation efficiency, finding new sources of renewable energy, disaster preparedness and cross-border water agreements to get ready for the impact climate change is going to have on the land and people of Central Asia.

Just speaking from experience, these countries are already incredible hot in the summer and its difficult to imagine how unbearable it will become if temperatures rise even further.